NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) measured that rainfall by using a merged precipitation product from a constellation of satellites.
NASA’s estimates suggest that between 23 and 29 February, over 700 mm (27.6 inches) of rain fell in areas east of the Andes in southeastern Peru and Bolivia.
NASA’s IMERG data collected from Feb. 23-29, 2016, were used to estimate rainfall totals over this area of South America. The highest rainfall total estimates for this period were over 700 mm (27.6 inches). These extreme rainfall total estimates were shown east of the Andes in southeastern Peru and Bolivia.
Credits: ASA/JAXA/SSAI, Hal Pierce
GPM is the Global Precipitation Measurement mission, which is a satellite co-managed by NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and is used in NASA’s IMERG data. GPM provides next-generation observations of rain and snow worldwide every three hours.
Extremely heavy rainfall was reported in northern Peru on February 26 and February 27, 2016, where at least two people were reportedly killed from the severe weather.
Aftermath of floods and landslides in Satipo Province, Junín region, February 2016. Photo: INDECI
The strong El Niño was partially blamed for the abnormally high rainfall in that area by local observers.
NASA’s IMERG data collected from February 23-29, 2016 were used to estimate rainfall totals over this area of South America. The highest rainfall total estimates for this period were over 700 mm (27.6 inches). These extreme rainfall total estimates were shown east of the Andes in southeastern Peru and Bolivia.
More Rain Forecast
On 03 March 2016, Peru’s National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (SENAMHI) said that rain was forecast to continue along the North Coast. The service said that in 10 hours, the Lancones (Piura) station recorded a total of 4.3 inches (110 mm), while in the city of Tumbes recorded 2.4 inches (60 mm).
About the Satellites
The satellites used in IMERG include DMSPs from the U.S. Department of Defense, GCOM-W from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Megha-Tropiques from the Centre National D’etudies Spatiales (CNES) and Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), NOAA series from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Suomi-NPP from NOAA-NASA, and MetOps from the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT). All of the instruments (radiometers) onboard the constellation partners are intercalibrated with information from the GPM Core Observatory’s GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR).
By Brian Lada
Wet weather will frequent large portions of South America throughout autumn; however, dry spells will dominate the weather pattern in southern and northern parts of the continent.
The long-term drought that has plagued Brazil will begin to ease this autumn, though the heaviest and most beneficial rain will be mainly confined to southern portions of the country.
The season will get off to a wet start from Colombia through Chile before being replaced by drier conditions for the second half of the season.
Flooding rain, severe weather to target Bolivia, Paraguay, southern Brazil
Some of the most active weather across South America this season will stretch from eastern Bolivia to southern Brazil.
Excessive rain may lead to flooding issues that could affect the crops in the area, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.
Depending on when the rain falls, it could interfere with the process of harvesting across the region.
“It’s not even out of the question that there could be some severe weather in Paraguay and into southern Brazil,” Miller said.
This could include thunderstorms strong enough to produce damaging winds, large hail and flash flooding.
Some cities that may experience severe storms of this nature include Santa Cruz, Bolivia; Asuncion, Paraguay; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; and Buenos Aires, Argentina.
A couple drives a makeshift raft on a flooded street of the Banado Norte neighborhood in Asuncion, Paraguay, Sunday, Dec. 27, 2015. (AP Photo/Jorge Saenz)
Early rains to frequent Colombia to Chile
Bouts of rain are expected to frequent swaths of South America stretching from Colombia to Chile and Argentina, but the rain will not be evenly distributed throughout the whole season for some of these areas.
El Niño will continue to influence the weather pattern across Chile into autumn, allowing for opportunities for rain in March and April. However, as El Niño weakens and the calendar turns to May and June, Chile will begin to experience drier-than-normal conditions.
The drier weather during the second half of the ski season may end up hurting resorts in central Chile that depend on mountain snow late in the season.
The exception to this will be in southern Chile where the autumn months favor a drier-than-normal weather pattern through most of the season.
Last year from March through June, Santiago, Chile, received only 6 mm (0.24 of an inch) or rain. While the city may receive more than this during March through June of this year, Santiago will likely finish the season below the normal rainfall amount of 165 mm (6.5 inches).
El Niño is Here, But California Is Still in Drought
Months of rain and snow will be needed to climb out of the four-year dry spell
A parade of El Niño-fueled storms has marched over California in the last few weeks, bringing bouts of much needed rain and snow to the parched state. But maps of drought conditions there have barely budged, with nearly two-thirds of the state still in the worst two categories of drought.
So what gives?
The short answer, experts say, is that the drought built up over several years (with help from hotter temperatures fueled in part by global warming) and it will take many more storms and almost assuredly more than a single winter—even one with a strong El Niño—to erase it.
The issue for California comes down to this: there are short-term drought impacts and long-term ones.
With the former, the signs are encouraging: Soil moisture is increasing and some areas are greening up thanks to repeated rains. Temperatures have also been cold enough that snow is building up in the mountains. The snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, a major water resource come spring and summer, is up to an average of 113 percent of normal for this time of year, according to California’s Department of Water Resources (DWR). Compare that to the record low 6 percent of normal at the end of winter last year.
“The good news is we are seeing the benefits of El Niño, but they are trying to climb out of a 4-year drought,” Mark Svoboda, a climatologist with the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said in an email.
Long-term impacts like depleted groundwater, low reservoir levels and pitiful stream flows, “they’re not responding much at all yet,” Brian Fuchs, another NDMC climatologist, said. “The reservoir levels have hardly moved.”
To name just a few examples (all in Northern California): Trinity Lake is at 27 percent of capacity and 38 percent of its historical average, Shasta Reservoir is at 49 percent of capacity and 73 percent of the historical average, and Lake Oroville is at 40 and 61 percent, respectively, according to DWR records.
Those reservoirs are crucial to agriculture and supplying water to many areas. A report released in June by scientists from the University of California, Davis, estimated that the drought had cost the state’s agricultural industry some $2.7 billion. With levels still low, it’s unclear how much will be available to farmers come spring.
To get reservoirs and groundwater back to pre-drought levels will simply take more time and more precipitation.
Such issues “are the last to emerge going into drought and they will be the last to recover coming out,” Svoboda wrote in the most recent Drought Monitor report, which the NDMC puts out on a weekly basis.
That reality has led Fuchs, Svoboda and the other Drought Monitor authors to keep the map of drought in California largely unchanged since late fall, when the storms began blowing through.
If the precipitation continues, there may be some slight easing in the coming weeks, but Fuchs warned that “it’s going to be slow.”
The situation has been very different in Oregon and Washington, which were similarly smothered by drought earlier in the year, but have made huge strides thanks to the spate of storms. Three months ago, Washington was entirely in drought; now just 25 percent is. Oregon has more drought conditions remaining, but the worst-off areas have gone from taking up two thirds of the state to only about 4 percent of it in the same period of time.
The difference in those states, Svoboda said, was that their drought was not as deeply entrenched, having largely developed over only the last year.
Drought levels across California as of Jan. 28, 2015. Click image to enlarge.
Credit: U.S. Drought Monitor
Drought conditions in California, in contrast, have been building up since 2012. Over that time, the state has missed out on nearly a year’s worth of rain, according to a study published in July. That means they need the equivalent of two full years’ worth of rain to catch up. Even if this winter brings above-average precipitation to the state, it won’t be on that level.
Unexpectedly for a strong El Niño, most of the storms so far have hit Northern California, while Southern California has lagged behind in rain and snow totals. El Niño typically shifts the jet stream to a position where it funnels incoming storms over the southern tier of the U.S., and as we are reaching the time of year when El Niño’s impacts typically peak, we could see a shift to that classic setup, Fuchs said.
All the snow in the Sierras is still beneficial to the state as a whole, though, as some of the water that will fill reservoirs when the snow melts is funneled to the southern portions of the state.
Overall, with the precipitation that has fallen in the last few weeks and the expectation that that pattern will hold, “the momentum is there” to make some headway in alleviating the drought, Fuchs said.
“The first of the dominoes has fallen in that they needed to wet up the soils in the short-term so that they release water into streams and groundwater,” Svoboda said. “But we’re a long ways away yet for seeing California in an all-clear situation.”